Calls.

In a thing like this, you have to make your calls and stick by them, although this is just for credibility's sake. I have no financial positions whatsoever.

Once again, I think that all the trends I've identified pause here then accelerate. I see no systemic intervention to save the day.

Therefore:

Oil is headed down fast (easy, it already started).

Gold, which will follow oil, is a great short here - or scale in if you think it you can go short at $800.

[Oooh, that one is a little embarrassing now. Ah well. I'll have to invoke that old Wall Street crutch that "in the medium-term" I think gold is a massive short - but what will be the peak of panic buying? Who knows.]

The euro is up, will be up again and then has to crack. Once again, I am not making a call on the fundamentals because I don't think the fundamentals are the major influence here, but I do think the fear of a Fed easing will put the euro to back on the anti-bubble rollercoaster sooner than later.

The Japanese yen has not strengthened here as much as it should have - I think. Maybe there is more bubble/anti-bubble action here than I thought.

This would be a great time to go long the dollar index, which is UP today if only because the basket of currencies against which it trades is such a basket-case.

China and India are really worrisome. Big crashes in equity markets, inflation, the whole works.

So the financial turmoil really only adds to the thesis, I'm afraid.

I think the government is acting with surprising creativity, but we have to wonder if it's too late.

This is just a greater blow than anyone could have imagined and it's a truly terrible sign that we see bidders stepping away from these distress situations in financial stocks. I'm sure they are all telling themselves that the stocks don't matter and it's all about the bonds now, but that is a thin reed.

I've never been more confident in my thesis, and sadder for my country.

But, again, REALLY GOOD developments can come of this if we pursue the right policies.


May you live in slightly less interesting times than these